Updated 9:21 p.m. ET
Today is the day the clock starts running. After Democrats posted their health bill online this afternoon, there is a seventy-two hour countdown until House Democrats bring it up for a vote Sunday afternoon. The Democrats' whip team will be busy in that seventy-two hours furiously counting the votes, twisting arms and convincing some of their skeptical members to support the health care bill.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi can only afford to lose thirty-seven Democrats if every Republican votes against the bill. CBS News will be measuring the whip team's progress.
Here's who to watch:
Vulnerable Democrats: Thirty-seven members who are either on the fence, or a firm no, represent districts that will be the most competitive this November according to a CBS News analysis. This vote on health care could determine whether they have a job next year.
Anti-abortion Democrats: Watch Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.) who has said he has twelve members who would vote against the health care bill if the Senate abortion language is not changed to make sure no federal funds pay for abortions.
Blue Dogs: Of the thirty-nine Democrats who voted against the House health care bill last November, twenty-six were fiscally conservative Blue Dogs. The preliminary Congressional Budget Office estimate that leaked this morning says that the latest bill would reduce the deficit by $130 billion in the first decade and $1.2 trillion in the second. That's good leverage for Democratic leadership to use on the Blue Dogs.
Congressional Hispanic Caucus members: Rep. Luis Guttierez (D-Ill.) had said that he would not vote for the health care bill, but then changed his mind and said he would support it on Thursday afternoon. He was reticent because the Senate language would not allow illegal immigrants to purchase health insurance in the exchanges, even if they pay completely with their own money. Watch to see what other Congressional Hispanic Caucus members decide.
Retirees: Watch Reps. John Tanner (D-Tenn.), Bart Gordon (D-Tenn.) and Brian Baird (D-Wash.). They all voted against the House health care bill in November, but have announced since that they will retire at the end of this year. Without the pressure of reelection, all three could change their votes to yes.
Update: Bart Gordon released a statement Thursday afternoon saying he would vote for the bill.
Republican Rep. Rep. Anh "Joseph" Cao: He was the only Republican to vote for the House health care bill in November. Local paper in Louisiana reports that President Obama asked him to take another look and he agreed to take another look.
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CBSNews.com Special Report: Health Care
Here is a list of firm no's and folks on the fence as of March 18th:
FIRM NO DEMOCRATS (20):
1. Rep. Jim Marshall (D-Ga.)
2. Rep. Artur Davis (D-Ala.)
3. Rep. Bobby Bright (D-Ala.)
4. Rep. Mike Ross (D-Ark.)
5. Rep. Dan Boren (D-Okla.)
6. Rep. Ben Chandler (D-K.Y.)
7. Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-S.D.)
8. Rep. Heath Shuler (D-N.C.)
9. Rep. Chet Edwards (D-Tex.)
10. Rep. Gene Taylor (D-Miss.)
11. Rep. Tim Holden (D-Pa.)
12. Rep. Larry Kissell (D-N.C.)
13. Rep. Frank Kratovil (D-Md.)
14. Rep. Mike McMahon (D-N.Y.)
15. Rep. Walt Minnick (D-Idaho)
16. Rep. Mike McIntyre (D-N.C.) - Voted yes on the House Bill in November
17. Rep. Ike Skelton (D-Mo.)
18. Rep. Collin Peterson (D-Minn.)
19. Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.) - Voted yes on the House Bill in November
20. Rep. Michael Arcuri (D-N.Y.) - Voted yes on the House Bill in November
UNDECIDED DEMOCRATS (44):
note: This list includes representatives who have announced firm support or opposition to the bill since this was first posted
Rep Harry Mitchell (D-Ariz)
Arizona:
Rep. Harry Mitchell, at left, (Voted yes on the House bill): CBS News calls Mitchell's district one of the most competitive in 2010.
Arkansas:
Rep. Marion Berry (Voted yes on the House bill): Voted in the budget committee to move the bill to the Rules Committee. Retiring.
California:
Rep. Jerry McNerney (Voted yes on the House bill): Tells local San Francisco blog that he's undecided. Does not think the bill goes far enough to cover the uninsured.
Colorado:
Rep. Betsy Markey (Voted no on the House bill): Her district was won by John McCain in 2008. Has not committed one way or another, but 2010 will be a tough contest for Markey.
Update: CBS News has confirmed that Markey will vote in favor of the bill.
Florida:
Rep. Allen Boyd (Voted no on the House bill): Almost assuredly no again, but has not come out and said it.
Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (Voted no on the House bill): Has met privately with President Obama at the White House.
Georgia:
Rep. Sanford Bishop (Voted yes on the House bill): Wants strict abortion language
Rep. John Barrow (Voted no on the House bill): Likely no again, but tells local paper he is undecided.
Illinois:
Rep. Dan Lipinski (Voted yes on the House bill): Will be no unless they change the Senate abortion language.
Rep. Jerry Costello (Voted yes on the House bill): Waiting to see the changes to the Senate bill.
Rep. Melissa Bean (Voted yes on the House bill): Staff says wants a chance to read the bill and the CBO score first.
Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-Ind.)
Indiana:
Rep. Joe Donnelly (Voted yes on the House bill): Will vote no without stricter language on abortion.
Rep. Brad Ellsworth, at left, (Voted yes on the House bill): Wants strict abortion language and is running for Senate.
Rep. Baron Hill (Voted yes on the House bill): Wants strict abortion language.
Louisiana:
Rep. Charles Melancon (Voted no on the House bill): Running for Senate. Likely still a no.
Massachusetts:
Rep. Michael Capuano (Voted yes on the House bill): Tells Boston Herald that he's "not there yet."
Rep. Stephen Lynch (Voted yes on the House bill): Wants to see final language.
Update: Stephen Lynch has told CBS News that he is now a no vote for the bill.
Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.)
Michigan:
Rep. Bart Stupak, at left, (Voted yes on the House bill): He's a no unless abortion language is more strict.
Rep. Mark Schauer (Voted yes on the House bill): Tells the Detroit News that he's waiting to see final language.
Update: Schauer now says he will support the bill
Rep. Gary Peters (Voted yes on the House bill): Tells the Detroit News he wants to see the cost.
Mississippi:
Rep. Travis Childers (Voted no on the House bill): Very likely a no again.
Nevada:
Rep. Dina Titus (Voted yes on the House bill): Tells local radio station that she is undecided.
New Jersey:
Rep. John Adler (Voted no on the House bill): Tells local paper that he will vote no if the final bill does not do more to control cost.
New Mexico:
Rep. Harry Teague (Voted no on the House bill): Waiting for language.
New York:
Rep. Tim Bishop (Voted yes on the House bill): Voted in the budget committee to move the bill to the rules committee
Rep. Michael Arcuri (Voted yes on the House bill): Wants to see the final language.
Update: Arcuri put out a statement Thursday night saying he would vote no.
Rep. Bill Owens (Voted yes on the House bill): Tells local paper that he is undecided
North Dakota:
Rep. Earl Pomeroy (Voted yes on the House bill): Concerned about Senate abortion language and costs. Democrats just gave him the plum job of the social security subcommittee on Ways and Means after Rangel was forced to step down and the committee reorganized. Possibly a sweetener.
Ohio:
Rep. John Boccieri (Voted no on the House bill): He skipped Mr. Obama's event in Ohio even though he was invited by the White House. Check out this article on a plane flying overhead in Canton with a banner that read "Tell Rep. Boccieri no abortion funding."
Rep. Betty Sutton (Voted yes on the House bill): Wants to see the bill. Mr. Obama's event Monday was in her district.
Rep. Marcy Kaptur (Voted yes on the House bill): Concerns with abortion funding and explaining the bill to constituents so they understand what's in it.
Rep. Steve Driehaus (Voted yes on the House bill): Now considered a likely no. Wants stricter abortion language.
Rep. Zack Space (Voted yes on the House bill): Does not like senate bill and wants to see language.
Oregon:
Rep. Kurt Schrader (Voted yes on the House bill): On CBS News list of most competitive races.
Rep. Jason Altmire (D-Pa.)
Pennsylvania:
Rep. Jason Altmire, at left, (Voted no on the House bill): He has always liked the Senate bill more than the House bill because he says it does more to control costs. Tells CBS that he's "had conversations with president, and some cabinet secretaries and others at the White House." Tells local paper that he's talked to Mr. Obama 3 times. Altmire also tells CBS that he is against using a self-executing rule to deem the Senate bill passed without a straight up or down vote on it. (More on Altmire from CBS Station KDKA in Pittsburgh)
Rep. Nancy Dahlkemper (Voted yes on the House bill): Depends on abortion language and wants to read the final bill
Rep. Chris Carney (Voted yes on the House bill): Has concerns about Senate abortion language.
Tennessee:
Rep. Bart Gordon, at left, (Voted no on the House bill): Possibly a yes now that he is retiring. Spokesman tells the Tennessean that he wants to see final language. Gordon talked to reporters in the Speaker's lobby the other night and defended using the self-executing rule to deem the Senate bill passed saying that it's just as legitimate a rule as the filibuster so it can be used. Gordon's top concern is controlling costs.
Update: Bart Gordon released a statement Thursday afternoon saying he would support the bill.
Rep. Lincoln Davis (Voted no on the House bill): Very likely no again. Has not told local papers which way he will vote.
Rep. John Tanner (Voted no on the House bill): He's retiring though so leadership is pushing on him.
Texas:
Rep. Henry Cuellar (Voted Yes on the House bill): Wants stricter abortion language.
Rep. Solomon Ortiz (Voted yes on the House bill): Dallas Morning News reports that he is undecided.
Rep. Ciro Rodrigues (Voted yes on the House bill): Dallas Morning News reports that he is undecided.
Utah:
Rep. Jim Matheson (Voted no in Novembet): President Obama offered his brother a U.S. Circuit Judge post two weeks ago. Sweetener?
Virginia:
Rep. Rick Boucher (Voted no on the House bill): Some Republicans expect him to be a no again. He has not committed either way.
Rep. Glenn Nye (Voted no on the House bill): CBS News lists the district as one of the most competitive in 2010.
Rep. Tom Perriello (Voted yes on the House bill): CBS News lists this freshman's district as one of the most competitive in 2010. He has defended the Senate abortion language to Hill media outlets.
Washington:
Rep. Brian Baird (Voted no on the House bill): Maybe a yes now that he's retiring tells McClatchy Newspapers that he needs to see the actual language before he makes up his mind.
West Virginia:
Rep. Alan Mollohan (Voted yes on the House bill): CBS news calls this seat one of the most competitive for 2010.
Wisconsin:
Rep. Ron Kind (Voted yes on the House bill): He voted no in the budget committee this past Monday to move the reconciliation package to the rules committee. Has met with Mr. Obama. Wants more Medicare reimbursement reform for hospitals according to a local blog.
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